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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/06.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TO MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF
STORM AND CUTS OFF A LOW AT 500 MB.  THE AVN...GFDL...UKMET AND 
NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 
HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THESE 
MODELS.  
 
SOME DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE BANDING SEEN 
EARLIER IS NO LONGER AS WELL DEFINED.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED 
REMAINS 35 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR MODEST 
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM 
SSTS.  BY 72 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.

A 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS ALL WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE 
CENTER AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED RADII ARE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT FOR 
THIS...BUT THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SYMMETRIC IN 12 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/WALLACE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 16.6N 115.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.3N 116.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N 118.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 119.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N 123.0W    35 KTS
  
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