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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/05.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TO MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 
72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF 
STORM.  THE AVN...GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
ABOUT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS.
 
SOME DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE APPEARS TO
BE SOME BANDING OF THIS CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35
KNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  BY 72
HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 16.1N 114.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.8N 115.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.6N 116.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.3N 117.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.2N 118.9W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W    35 KTS
  
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