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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2001
 
NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER IN RECENT
HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE OR NO BANDING.  THE
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM
SAB.  THE SHAPE OF THE CONVECTION INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES FROM AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  

THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE CENTER MAY BE
DRIFTING NOW TO THE NORTHWEST.  MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD.  CONSISTENT WITH THIS
PATTERN...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENCES ONLY IN SPEED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL EDGE AWAY FROM MANUEL 
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW EVOLVES AS 
FORECAST...THE SHEAR WOULD LESSEN AND THERE WOULD BE SOME 
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN SHOWING MODEST STRENGTHENING 
OUT TO 36 HOURS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COOLING SSTS AND 
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE INHIBITING 
FACTORS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 14.6N 114.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.4N 115.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 17.6N 117.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 119.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N 121.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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