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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS DEEP 
CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS 
ALSO MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 14/0340Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER 
IN JUST INSIDE THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  THIS 
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION 
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE THE 
APPEARANCE OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS 
MAINTAINED BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT... 
T3.5...FROM TAFB AND 35 KT...T2.5...FROM SAB...AND INCREASING 
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
BY 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME THE TROUGH IS CONTINUING
TO DIG SOUTHWARD JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD HELP LIFT IT
SLOWLY POLEWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND HELP MOVE MANUEL
IN A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  THIS IS 
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF 
THE NHC GUIDANCE SUITE...AND CLOSE TO THE AVN-NOGAPS-UKMET MODEL 
CONSENSUS.
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST NORTHWEST OF MANUEL IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  
WHILE THIS PATTERN IS INCREASING THE UPPER-DIFULENCE ACROSS THE 
CYCLONE AND AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ALSO 
INCREASING THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.  ONCE THE SHEAR 
DECREASES...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND THE SHIPS 
INTENSITY MODEL ACTUALLY BRINGS MANUEL BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 
36 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES TO ONLY 5 TO 10 KT.
 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 13.7N 114.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 13.8N 114.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 14.2N 115.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 14.9N 115.9W    55 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N 119.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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