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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2001
MANUEL CONTINUES GENERATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...ARE AT 35 AND 30 KTS RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 240/08. MANUAL APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE. MANUEL IS
CURRENTLY STEERED BY LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH TO
DEVELOP WEST OF 135W. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW MANUEL A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION FOR 24-48 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
BUT SLOWER.
MANUEL REMAINS IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...AND THE
IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. DESPITE
THIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE CALLING FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.4N 113.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 14/0000Z 14.2N 113.8W 30 KTS
24HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 114.4W 30 KTS
36HR VT 15/0000Z 13.9N 115.0W 25 KTS
48HR VT 15/1200Z 14.0N 115.9W 25 KTS
72HR VT 16/1200Z 14.3N 117.6W 25 KTS
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