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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2001
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS FROM ALL THREE 
AGENCIES. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OUTFLOW 
PATTERN AND SINCE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD TO 45 KNOTS. LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES MODERATE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS AND 
THEN A WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST 
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. 
 
INITIAL FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO 11 KNOTS.  THE OVERALL FORECAST 
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE 
TO THE NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN AFTER A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF DUE 
WEST...BUT IN THE LONG RANGE...MANUEL COULD TRACK MORE TOWARD THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE.
  
FORECASTER AVILA/NELSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 16.1N 107.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 17.0N 111.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 17.0N 114.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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