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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2001

WHILE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL REMAINS SOMEWHAT 
LIMITED...THE SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH 
BANDING FEATURES NOW EVIDENT.  ACCORDINGLY...SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES ARE NOW 45 KNOTS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KNOTS. 
  
THE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED IS 13 KNOTS...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.
THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH
OF MANUEL.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MANUEL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.  THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT MANUEL.  THE GFDL AND NAVY-GFDL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO RECURVE MANUEL TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL HAS A KNOWN POLEWARD BIAS IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS MANUEL MORE
WESTWARD AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MANUEL COULD TRACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE.  

THE EARLIER SHARP EDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT AS EVIDENT
NOW.  THE OVERALL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD AND...GIVEN
WEAK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT SST...MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE SLOW
INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES MODERATE
STRENTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SO
NO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 15.9N 106.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 16.5N 107.9W    50 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.0N 109.4W    55 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 17.4N 111.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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