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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2001
 
THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL QUASI-CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AT THIS TIME.
SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB
MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED
TO A TROPICAL STORM.  AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO IS STILL IMPARTING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...AND
IMPEDING THE STORMS OUTFLOW TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE THE STORM SHOULD
BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 12 KNOTS...INDICATING A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MANUEL BEING WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BY THE PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTERWARDS...A WEAK EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT SHOULD PREVAIL.  THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 14.8N 103.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 15.1N 105.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 16.0N 108.8W    50 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 16.3N 110.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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