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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2001
THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS FOR THIS ARE THE PRESENCE OF SHEAR FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM...AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF 110W
AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND 30 KNOTS FROM SAB. DUE TO THE WEAKENED
APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT
30 KNOTS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH...THEREFORE DECREASING THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT OVER
THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS...THEREFORE THE INTENSITY WILL
BE LEVELED OFF AT 45 KNOTS BY THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE...
AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME RIDGING WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST. MOST NHC GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION...SAVE FOR LBAR WHICH TURNS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD BY 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A WESTWARD
MOTION AT ABOUT 8-9 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 13.9N 122.6W 30 KTS
12HR VT 04/0000Z 13.9N 123.9W 30 KTS
24HR VT 04/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W 35 KTS
36HR VT 05/0000Z 14.4N 127.6W 40 KTS
48HR VT 05/1200Z 14.5N 129.5W 45 KTS
72HR VT 06/1200Z 15.0N 132.0W 45 KTS
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