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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001
 
AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING LORENA COULD FIND ONLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THEIR FLIGHT ALTITUDE OF 700 MB.  HOWEVER...
THEY ESTIMATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
1004 MB...NEAR A CLOUD SWIRL APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE CENTER IS AT LEAST 100 NM TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED FROM THE 
ABBREVIATED PATTERN WAS 29 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 
25 KT.  A DROPSONDE RELEASED NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT NOT IN THE 
DEEP CONVECTION...ALSO HAD 25 KT AT THE SURFACE.  ALTHOUGH I DO NOT 
THINK IT IS LIKELY...I AM ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN THAT WERE NOT SAMPLED.  WITH THE 
SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE...LORENA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

WITH A GOOD RECON POSITION THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/6...SLOWER 
AND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE SHEARED CYCLONE 
WILL BE STEERED BY A LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND THEREFORE MOVE MORE SLOWLY 
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  ON THE NEW TRACK THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN 
OVER WATER FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS...BUT COULD WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE 
MAKING LANDFALL.  REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE SPREADING 
ONSHORE NOW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 17.2N 106.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 19.7N 106.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.2N 105.7W    25 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 22.5N 105.0W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
72HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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