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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2001

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LORENA IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...EARLIER IR IMAGES HINTED AT A WARM SPOT WHERE THERE
IS NOW STRONG CONVECTION OF -80C.  THIS...COMBINED WITH EARLIER
SSM/I AND AMSU-B IMAGES SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM IS CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 45 KT FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

LORENA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 350/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR 18N
120W.  ALL NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT LORENA WILL RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...MAKING LANDFALL IN
WESTERN MEXICO IN 24-48 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH AVN AND BAMM.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY.  LORENA IS EMBEDDED IN
AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND THE
OVERALL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.  ADDITIONALLY...
MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DEVELOPING NORTH
OF 20N.  THIS PATTERN LOOKS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...
AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE BRINGS LORENA TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS QUITE
STRONG...AND MICROWAVE DATA HINTING AT A TIGHT INNER CORE BRINGS UP
THE POSSIBILITY THAT LORENA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
THE SHEAR BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO STOP INTENSIFICATION.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM TO REACH 60 KT BEFORE THAT
OCCURS.  LORENA SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE SURFACE CENTER WILL LIKELY
BE GONE IN 48 HR.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF LORENA IN CASE HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NEEDED LATER
TODAY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 16.0N 106.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 17.7N 106.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 106.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z 23.4N 105.1W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     05/0600Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED
 
 
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