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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PRESUMED CENTER AND THE
LATEST TRMM/SSMI PASSES SUGGEST A DEVELOPING INNER CORE...SO AS LONG
AS THE CENTER IS WHERE WE THINK IT IS...SHORT TERM STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED. NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SHOWS LORENA BECOMING A
HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A LARGE INCREASE IN SHEAR AS THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LORENA
WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE HIGH-SHEAR REGION AND COULD STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
HENCE THE HURRICANE WATCH.
THERE IS A CLUSTERING OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE JUST TO THE WEST OF CABO
CORRIENTES...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FURTHER WEST. THE AVN HAS
BEEN A VERY GOOD PERFORMER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT IS THE
QUICKEST TO LANDFALL...BRINGING THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO
THE COAST IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS. THE GFDN ALSO INDICATES LANDFALL
IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FASTER...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE
AVN. OUT OF RESPECT FOR ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE...IT IS TIME FOR A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0300Z 14.8N 106.2W 40 KTS
12HR VT 03/1200Z 16.6N 106.9W 50 KTS
24HR VT 04/0000Z 19.0N 107.0W 55 KTS
36HR VT 04/1200Z 22.0N 106.3W 60 KTS
48HR VT 05/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W 30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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