[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED...AND 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS 
BEEN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PRESUMED CENTER AND THE 
LATEST TRMM/SSMI PASSES SUGGEST A DEVELOPING INNER CORE...SO AS LONG 
AS THE CENTER IS WHERE WE THINK IT IS...SHORT TERM STRENGTHENING IS 
EXPECTED.  NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SHOWS LORENA BECOMING A 
HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A LARGE INCREASE IN SHEAR AS THE 
CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LORENA 
WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE HIGH-SHEAR REGION AND COULD STRENGTHEN 
MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... 
HENCE THE HURRICANE WATCH.

THERE IS A CLUSTERING OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE JUST TO THE WEST OF CABO 
CORRIENTES...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FURTHER WEST.  THE AVN HAS 
BEEN A VERY GOOD PERFORMER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  IT IS THE 
QUICKEST TO LANDFALL...BRINGING THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO 
THE COAST IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS.  THE GFDN ALSO INDICATES LANDFALL 
IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT 
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FASTER...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE 
AVN.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE...IT IS TIME FOR A 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 14.8N 106.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 16.6N 106.9W    50 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 19.0N 107.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N 106.3W    60 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


Problems?