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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET
VERY WELL-DEFINED.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND
TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THE AVERAGE OF
THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL BEING BLUNTED
A BIT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  THE 
OFFICIAL TRACK UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE 
UKMET/NOGAPS/AVN CONSENSUS.  THE AVN CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHARPER 
RECURVATURE THAN EITHER THE NOGAPS OR UKMET. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 13.6N 105.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.8N 106.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 16.9N 107.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     04/0600Z 19.0N 107.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     04/1800Z 21.3N 106.8W    60 KTS
72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N 104.5W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 
 
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