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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001

THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES IS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTHWEST.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.5 SO THE INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LORENA IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THIS IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE LATEST SHIPS 
GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...285/9...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE 
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE STEERING REGIME CONTINUES 
TO BE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...WITHIN WHICH TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE HAS BEEN 
EMBEDDED.  IN RESPONSE TO THE STEERING WINDS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE 
OF THIS SYSTEM...LORENA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND 
NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
FOLLOWS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS 
SLIGHTLY FASTER.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE 
GFDL...AVN...U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS TRACKS...BUT LEANS MORE 
TOWARD THE AVN.

SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES LORENA TO THE COAST IN 2-3 
DAYS...INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS 
OF THIS STORM.


FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 12.8N 104.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 105.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 15.2N 106.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 17.3N 107.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 19.5N 107.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N 105.5W    45 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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