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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BASED ON THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION NOW BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.  THE INITIAL POSITION AND INDICATED SHEAR PATTERN ARE ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A 25/0232Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...WHICH INDICATED THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/04.  KIKO REMAINS ON TRACK...SO THERE IS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TAKE KIKO TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS BASED ON FORECAST WEAKENING...MAKING THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN-NOGAPS-GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...IF
KIKO WEAKENS FASTER THAN FORECAST...THEN IT COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHICH WOULD ONLY HELP THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE SOONER.
 
STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS KIKO ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. IF THE
SYSTEM STALLS...THEN IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT KIKO COULD CEASE
TO EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 19.0N 127.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.9N 128.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.6N 130.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 18.3N 131.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 133.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     28/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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