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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001
 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION...CIRCULATION 
AND OUTFLOW TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS 
TIME. IN FACT...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TWELVE IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.

THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS 
PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 
SHIPS MODEL. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO LBAR.

FORECASTER AVILA/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 15.8N 118.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 120.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.3N 122.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.6N 124.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 127.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N 130.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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