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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001
 
AFTER A BRIEF SPURT OF DEEPER CONVECTION THIS MORNING...RECENT 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 
THE CENTER OF JULIETTE HAVE DECREASED.  RADAR DATA FROM THE YUMA 
WSR-88D IS ALSO INDICATING LESS ORGANIZATION OF THE RAIN BANDS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AS THE CENTER REMAINS 
JUST OFFSHORE THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED 
TONIGHT AS JULIETTE MOVES INLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
PENINSULA...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST OVER THE COOLER PACIFIC WATERS 
WEST OF THE PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS.  IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE 
THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING TO THE PACIFIC.
 
JULIETTE HAS TURNED MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND THE 
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 230/5.  THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A 
LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE...WHICH IS BEING PUSHED SOUTHWARD 
BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS 
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS TRACK 
IS SIMILAR TO...AND A LITTLE SLOWER...THAN THOSE OF THE NOGAPS 
...MEDIUM BAM...AND CLIPER MODELS.

FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 30.3N 114.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 29.8N 115.3W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     03/1800Z 28.7N 116.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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