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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS OF JULIETTE ARE SO WARM THAT THE SYSTEM
IS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...IT HAS A FAIR
REFLECTIVITY PRESENTATION ON THE YUMA WSR-88D.  DOPPLER VELOCITY
DATA FROM YUMA HAS BEEN SHOWING OCCASIONAL 35-50 KT WINDS WELL
ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT DUE TO THE WEAK CONVECTION IT IS BELIEVED
THESE WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  THE MAXIMUM
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE MOTION REMAINS SLOW AND ERRATIC...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE
BEING A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE RESEMBLES
SPOKES ON A WHEEL...WITH THE NHC91 TAKING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD...
THE BAND SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD...THE NOGAPS SOUTHWARD...THE
BAMM SOUTHWESTWARD...THE BAMS WESTWARD...AND CLIPER NORTHWARD.
SINCE JULIETTE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION
THAT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW MOTION AND IS A COMBINATION OF THE 
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE BAMS.
 
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITED SEA ROOM SHOULD REDUCE
THE CHANCES FOR JULIETTE TO STRENGTHEN EVEN THOUGH IT IS OVER WARM
WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR OR OVER NORTHERN BAJA.  SHOULD THE
SYSTEM SURVIVE THAT...VERY COLD PACIFIC WATER AWAITS...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE RAPID DISSIPATION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GIVEN THE WINDS
SEEN ON THE YUMA RADAR THE POSSIBILITY OF JULIETTE REGAINING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...WHILE RATHER UNLIKELY...CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 30.7N 113.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 30.9N 113.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 31.0N 114.6W    25 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 30.7N 115.9W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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