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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2001

IN A RATHER SURPRISING TURN OF EVENTS...JULIETTE RE-DEVELOPED
CENTRAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WITH A PERSISTENT WARM SPOT
EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A SOLID 65 KT...SO JULIETTE IS UPGRADED
BACK TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.
 
WHILE THE EYE SEEMS TO BE WOBBLING A BIT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ASHORE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND WHAT
APPEARS TO MID LEVEL RIDGING BOTH WEST AND EAST OF JULIETTE.  THIS
BEING TRAPPED BETWEEN THE RIDGES IS LIKELY ACCOUNTING FOR THE
CURRENT SLOW MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE U.S.
TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING AS A SECOND STRONGER
TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER WEST OVER THE PACIFIC.  THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
ALLOW JULIETTE TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  MOST
OF THE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...AND THE FORECAST
TRACK THUS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A SLOW MOTION ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 72 HR.  HOWEVER...THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THIS TO INCREASE AFTER 24 HR.  THIS COULD HELP PUSH JULIETTE MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS SUGGESTED BY BAMD AND NHC91UK.  THE STORM
WILL BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THIS ALTERNATIVE IS
HAPPENING.
 
JULIETTE IS SITTING OVER AN AREA OF WARM WATER JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE STRONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...AND THIS HAS LIKELY
BEEN ONE FACTOR CONTRIBUTING TO THE RE-INTENSIFICATION.  ON THE
NORTHWESTERLY FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER LAND
AND COLDER WATER...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  ADDITIONALLY...
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY SHEAR NEAR BAJA AFTER 24 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
HOLD JULIETTE AT 65 KT FOR 12 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.  SHOULD THE
STORM FOLLOW A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...IT WOULD PASS OVER THE WARM
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  WEAKENING WOULD AT LEAST BE SLOWED IF THAT
OCCURRED.
 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS REACHED ALMOST TO
30N OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 23.5N 110.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 24.0N 111.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 24.8N 111.8W    55 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     30/1200Z 25.4N 112.4W    45 KTS...OVER WATER
48HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     02/0000Z 27.0N 114.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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