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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2001
 
THE CIRCULATION OF JULIETTE IS VERY WELL DEFINED WITH A FEW BANDS OF 
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS 
DECREASED...T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
BEING ADJUSTED TO 60 KNOTS. A SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH LAND.

JULIETTE HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY.  THE SLOW MOTION HAS
PROLONGED THE EFFECTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  PRELIMINARY UNCONFIRMED REPORTS PROVIDED BY THE MEXICAN
WEATHER SERVICE INDICATE THAT CABO SAN LUCAS IS OBSERVING PEAK WINDS
OF 60 MPH AT THIS TIME AND REGISTERED A GUST TO 107 MPH AT 01 UTC
LAST NIGHT.  STEERING CURRENTS HAVE WEAKENED AND ONLY SMALL DRIFT
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST
OF BAJA IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
JULIETTE WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 23.3N 111.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 24.3N 111.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 25.5N 113.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 26.0N 113.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 27.0N 115.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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