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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN BUT
STILL HAS PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING SO INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 80 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
MAY OCCUR TODAY...THE OVERALL TREND IS SLOW WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES COOLER WATER.

JULIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD...ABOUT 6 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 
FEW HOURS...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER-TROUGH NEARING 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
RAPIDLY...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBUILD AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE AVN 
AND THE UK GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE JULIETTE TO TURN 
TO A WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST MOTION BEYOND 24 HOURS.  ON THIS 
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE 
WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AT A VERY SLOW PACE DURING 
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORTUNATELY...THE OCEAN IS COLD AND JULIETTE 
SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS WELL. 

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD 
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 21.7N 110.9W    80 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 22.9N 111.1W    75 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 24.0N 111.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 25.5N 114.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 26.0N 115.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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