[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2001
 
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT.
HOWEVER...TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE
INDICATING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH MAY OCCUR TODAY...THE OVERALL TREND IS SLOW WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER WATER.
 
THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR 7 KTS RESPONDING
TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PULL NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK
THE CORE OF JULIETTE WILL NOT DIRECTLY HIT BAJA CALIFORNIA.  ONCE
AGAIN...ONLY A VERY SMALL ERROR IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD BRING
THE CENTER DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
ALTHOUGH...MOST OF GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION CANNOT BE
IGNORED.  ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 21.1N 110.9W    85 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N 111.2W    85 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 23.4N 112.7W    70 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 24.0N 113.7W    60 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 25.0N 115.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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