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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 26 2001
 
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JULIETTE WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL EYE AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW PATTERN.
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...
CONSEQUENTLY DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 115 KT.  AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER TODAY.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS MAY OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE
CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
 
THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE WOBBLING ON A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION IS 315/08.
JULIETTE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIKELY ERODE THIS RIDGE ALLOWING JULIETTE TO
TRACK IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE LATEST
UKMET-GFDL-AVN MODEL RUNS.
 
JULIETTE CONTINUES TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...AND ANY DEVIATION
TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 18.6N 109.3W   115 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 110.2W   110 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 20.8N 111.2W   110 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 21.8N 112.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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