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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001

JULIETTE REMAINS A LARGE AND VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE EVENING.  WHILE THE EYE HAS RECENTLY
BECOME CLOUD-FILLED...TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED A LITTLE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 140 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND
127 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 125 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT THIS EVENING WHICH
PUTS IT MORE OR LESS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE 12 HR
MOTION IS 290/8...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS EVEN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A STRONG TROUGH
WEST OF THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW JULIETTE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 72 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...TAKING JULIETTE
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
 
AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0112Z INDICATES THAT JULIETTE IS FORMING
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS.  SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR.
IN THE LONGER TERM...JULIETTE SHOULD MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER
WATER AND BEING WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...THE HIGH INTENSITY...LARGE
SIZE...AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS
STORM SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWER THAN THE NORM FOR THIS AREA...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS JULIETTE A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH 48 HR.

SHIP 3FIF8 REPORTED 40 KT WINDS JUST SOUTH OF MANZANILLO AT 00Z...
AND MANZANILLO REPORTED 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT IN A SQUALL.  THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...AND THUS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE AGAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THIS REGION.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII.
SHIP V7AP3 REPORTED 34 KT WINDS 320 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 00Z
ALONG WITH 26 FT SEAS.  WHILE THE SEAS LOOK SOMEWHAT HIGH...SSM/I
DATA INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING TO AT LEAST 10N IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT.  34 KT WIND AND
12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 17.1N 108.2W   125 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.8N 109.2W   125 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 19.3N 110.3W   120 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W   110 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N 112.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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