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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...JULIETTE HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE RE-APPEARANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
10NM DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...-75C TO -80C...SURROUNDING THE EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT...T6.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AN ESTIMATE OF 102 KT...T5.5...FROM AFWA...AND A 3-HR AVERAGE
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 125 KT...ODT6.4.  THE
INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN BELOW THE ODT VALUES AND THE TAFB AND SAB
ESTIMATES TO ALLOW THE WIND FIELD TO CATCH UP WITH THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE...SIMILAR TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06.  THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE 
SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO WEST...EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS.  THE UKMET AND 
AVN MODELS ARE THE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT AND VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER 
...WHILE NOGAPS IS NOW THE FARTHEST MODEL TO THE RIGHT.  THE UKMET 
AND AVN MODELS KEEP JULIETTE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS MODEL TAKES JULIETTE INTO THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE ALMOST 
IDENTICAL IN THEIR TRACKS AND ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE 
SUITE. THEY BRING THE HURRICANE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BAJA IN 60 TO 
72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL-GFDN CONSENSUS...ONLY A 
LITTLE SLOWER OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SLOWER AVN AND UKMET MODELS.

NOW THAT JULIETTE IS NO LONGER STATIONARY LIKE LAST NIGHT...SOME 
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST WAS KEPT STEADY THROUGH 24 HOURS UNTIL A PERSISTENT 
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS SIMILAR 
TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS JULIETTE AFTER 24 
HOURS. HOWEVER...PART OF THE WEAKENING BIAS IS DUE TO THE INTENSITY 
PERSISTENCE PARAMETER WHICH WAS A LARGE NEGATIVE FACTOR IN THE 18Z 
AND 00Z FORECASTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE 
FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH AT LEAST 36 HOURS...AND THE NEXT ADVISORY 
MAY HAVE TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AS ALLUDED TO IN THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 FORECAST DISCUSSION.
 
JULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 15.7N 105.0W   105 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.3N 105.9W   105 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 17.3N 106.9W   105 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 18.3N 107.8W   100 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 21.2N 109.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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