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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
JULIETTE APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY BASED UPON RECENT
SATELLITE PICTURES.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127
KT...T6.5...FROM TAFB AND 115 KT...T6.0...FROM SAB KEEPS INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 125 KT.  FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS SUGGESTS THAT
JULIETTE IS PROGRESSING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE
12Z SHIPS MODEL IS NOW FORECASTING SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE
AROUND 1800Z TODAY AND PROVIDE GROUND TRUTH ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS 
HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 285/03.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN 
AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER FORECASTING JULIETTE IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE GFDL 
MODEL WHICH TAKES JULIETTE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.  HOWEVER...THE 
GFDL MODEL SOMETIMES HAS DIFFICULTIES WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN 
CAUSING A BIAS IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE 
TO THE PREVIOUS...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. 
 
JULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 15.2N 103.9W   125 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.6N 104.5W   125 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W   120 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.6N 106.5W   120 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 107.4W   115 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 21.2N 108.0W   110 KTS
 
 
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