HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 127 KT...T6.5...FROM TAFB...A 3-HOUR AVERAGE
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 127 KT...ODT6.5...AND A SMALL
PINHOLE EYE DIAMETER OF ABOUT 5 NM.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY 
SYMMETRICAL AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/03...BASED ON AN EXPECTED
RESUMPTION OF A WESTWARD COURSE.  DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...JULIETTE
HAS ACTUALLY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A GENERAL MOTION TO 
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. THERE IS 
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONVERGENCE AMONG THE NHC MODELS. NOGAPS 
IS BACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THIS MODEL RUN...AND 
EVEN THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS KEEP JULIETTE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST 
COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE FIRST TIME. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF ALL THE 
MODELS IS A MOTION TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN 72 TO 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE 
TO THE LEFT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO AVN-UKMET-NOGAPS 
CONSENSUS.
 
THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT TOPS HAVE WARMED 
SLIGHTLY AROUND THE EYE AND ALSO SUGGEST THAT JULIETTE MAY BE GOING 
THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF VERY 
INTENSE HURRICANES LIKE THIS ONE. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS 
JULIETTE UP TO 137 KT IN 12 HOURS AND 139 KT IN 24 HOURS.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT SLIGHTLY 
LOWER DUE TO POSSIBLE COLD WATER UPWELLING OCCURRING BENEATH THE 
CYCLONE SINCE JULIETTE IS ONLY FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER 
AFTER THAT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE 
CYCLONE AROUND 1800Z TODAY AND FINALLY PROVIDE SOME GROUND TRUTH ON 
THE TRUE INTENSITY OF THIS HURRICANE.
 
JULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST 
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 14.9N 103.6W   125 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.4N 104.2W   135 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W   130 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.9N 105.9W   125 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.1N 106.9W   120 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 21.0N 107.8W   115 KTS
 
 
NNNN