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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001
VIS AND IR IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE ARE PLENTY OF
BANDING FEATURES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM..SO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
NOW THAT THE EYE IS VISIBLE...THERE IS A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE. JULIETTE IS MOVING
280 ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 500 MB HIGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF JULIETTE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
FORCE JULIETTE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK
ENSEMBLE...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LASTEST GFDL RUNS BRING THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD MEXICO.
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST AT THIS TIME. WATCHES OR WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD GRADUALLY.
JULIETTE IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 14.8N 102.8W 80 KTS
12HR VT 24/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 85 KTS
24HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W 95 KTS
36HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 105.5W 100 KTS
48HR VT 25/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W 100 KTS
72HR VT 26/1200Z 20.5N 108.0W 100 KTS
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