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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 45 KT.  SINCE 
THEN...THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.  
YESTERDAY RECON INDICATED THIS CYCLONE HAD WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
SATELLITE ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.  A 
MICROWAVE PASS AT 13Z SHOWED A WELL DEFINED INNER CORE...AND I WOULD 
NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE AN EYE DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS.  WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER AHEAD...CONTINUED 
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL WESTWARD...BUT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS 
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY...265/9.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE THE 
OUTLIER...SHOWING A SHARP TURN BACK TO THE COAST AFTER 36 HOURS.  
EXAMINATION OF THE GFDL FIELDS SHOWS A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A 
MID-LEVEL VORTEX ANALYZED IN THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT.  ALL THE 
REMAINING GUIDANCE TAKES JULIETTE ON A GENTLY CURVING TRACK ROUGHLY 
PARALLEL TO THE COAST.  GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIAS OF THE GFDL IN 
THIS BASIN...IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT IT ALONE HAS THE ANSWER.  
MORE LIKELY THE GFDL TRACK IS RELATED TO A PROBLEM WITH THE FLOW 
DECOMPOSITION OF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX IN THE MODEL.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE 
APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MID-WEEK.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 13.5N 100.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 13.5N 101.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.7N 102.3W    70 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.2N 103.4W    75 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N 104.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 106.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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