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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001

RADAR FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF 
JULIETTE PASSING TO ITS SOUTH.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE 
CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN 
ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS NOT AS DEEP AS 
EARLIER TODAY. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS.  THE SHEAR IS 
LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS 
JULIETTE TO 100 KNOTS BY 60 HOURS.

JULIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
SO JULIETTE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A 
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CORE 
OF JULIETTE ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER 
...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE 
COAST.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED 
ACCORDINGLY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH 
TO THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.  THIS PATTERN COULD STEER JULIETTE 
NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN TO THE GULF OF CORTES. THIS 
IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFDL AND THE LATEST AVN. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD 
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIETTE. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 14.0N  96.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N  99.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.3N 101.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 104.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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