HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001
 
REPORTS FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY 
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT...FROM AN ALTITUDE OF 5000 
FT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 40 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE STEPPED 
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...REPORTED AN AREA OF 50 KT 
SURFACE WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE 
VALUES.

JULIETTE IS A SMALL CYCLONE.  SMALL SYSTEMS ARE PRONE TO RAPID 
CHANGES IN INTENSITY...UP OR DOWN.    UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS 
ONLY FAIR...BUT THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM.  THE SYSTEM IS ALSO RATHER 
CLOSE TO LAND. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY 
OR SO.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT 
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING 
COULD OCCUR THEN.

JULIETTE IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM 
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17.  THIS 
RAPID PACE IS DUE IN PART TO THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CYCLONE 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE WAVE THAT SPAWNED THE SYSTEM.  IT SEEMS 
UNLIKELY THAT THIS FORWARD SPEED CAN BE MAINTAINED FOR LONG.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS 
INITIALIZED TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1800Z 13.4N  94.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.8N  95.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.4N  98.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 15.0N 100.1W    60 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W    80 KTS
 
 
NNNN