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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2001
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT IVO HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS VISIBLE.  AT 06 UTC A SHIP PASSING
JUST EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SOUTHEAST WIND AT 20 KNOTS.  THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER 23 DEGREE CENTIGRADE WATER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO EVEN COLDER WATER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS.  THEREFORE...IVO IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING IN 12 HOURS
AND TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/6...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH A WEAK LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
RIDGE PROVIDING THE STEERING...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...FOR IVO.  THE
AVIATION AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 25.4N 115.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 26.0N 116.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     15/0600Z 26.5N 117.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     15/1800Z 26.8N 118.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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