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TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2001
 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 45 KNOTS.  THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
LESSENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECASTS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HOURS UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
 
THERE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS EARLIER.  THE 00Z
AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
WITH A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD AND THIS KEEPS IVO ON A
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF
THE AVIATION...GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON AN SSMI IMAGE AT 04Z THAT SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED CLOUD CENTER.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 22.2N 111.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 23.5N 113.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 25.8N 117.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 26.4N 118.6W    40 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 26.7N 120.4W    35 KTS
 
 
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