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TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 45 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS 
SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR A DAY OR SO UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND 
THEN COOLER WATER SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT IVO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS A NARROW RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IVO. 
 THIS SHOULD KEEP IVO ON A 310 DEGREE HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET AND 
AVIATION MODELS ALL SHOW THIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS 
OF THESE MODELS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 21.4N 111.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 22.7N 113.1W    50 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 23.9N 115.1W    55 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 24.9N 116.8W    50 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 25.5N 118.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 25.9N 120.5W    35 KTS
  
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