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TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IVO IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE 
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SOME NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR
PERSISTS OVER THE SYSTEM...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS ALLOWING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT TIME...
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND SHIFOR. THE SYSTEM THEN WEAKENS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO INCREASINGLY COLDER
WATER.
 
MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM OVER MEXICO WHICH SUPPORTS THE GENERAL NORTHWEST
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST. FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
BEYOND 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING STEERING FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...CLOSELY
MIRRORING GUNS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 20.7N 110.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 22.0N 112.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 24.6N 116.3W    50 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 25.5N 118.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 26.5N 120.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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