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TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  HOWEVER...UNLIKE
YESTERDAY...THE SURFACE CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED
ON EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 AND
3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. BOTH SHIPS 
AND SHIFOR ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY TREND OF THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE STORM 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

THE AVIATION AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE FORECAST.  THE GFDL MODEL
WHICH EARLIER HAD A TRACK ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SHIFT THE TRACK WESTWARD...MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE GFDL WITH NOGAPS INITIALIZATION REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

FORECASTER AVILA/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 19.7N 109.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 21.0N 111.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 26.0N 119.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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