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TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 11 2001
 
IN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...THE WORD BAJA IN FRONT OF CALIFORNIA WAS
OMITTED..CAUSING SOME CONFUSION. IT SHOULD HAVE SAID WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA. I APOLOGIZE.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT IVO HAS NOT CHANGED IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS.
THERE IS SOME SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING THE
CENTER TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION.  A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST AND THE SHEAR RELAXES.
 
IVO IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL
PERSIST...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY 72 HOURS.  A
COUPLE OF RELIABLE TRACK MODELS BRING IVO ON TRACK MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.
 
UNTIL THE STORM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS...IVO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS IN COASTAL
REGIONS WITH FLASH FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 17.6N 106.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 20.0N 110.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 21.5N 113.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 24.0N 118.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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