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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 10 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERALLY WEST TO 
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   IT IS PUZZLING 
THAT ONLY THE GFDL DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO.  IT DRIFTS THE 
DEPRESSION VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR 72 HOURS AND WEAKENS IT
AFTER 12 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MAJORITY OF 
THE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ONLY 1.5...25 KNOTS...CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS.  BUT THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER THAT IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE A
BANDING FEATURE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS.
THE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS A DECREASE IN EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
SO THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 65 KNOTS IN 72
HOURS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR
24 HOURS AFTER WHICH IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST.
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE DEPRESSION COULD GENERATE HEAVY RAINS
IN COASTAL REGIONS THAT COULD BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 15.4N 101.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 16.7N 105.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.5N 107.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N 109.9W    55 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N 114.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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