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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 10 2001
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ONLY 
1.0 AND 1.5...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF CIRCULATION 
AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO CALL THE DISTURBANCE A DEPRESSION.  
THERE IS ALMOST NO HISTORY ON THE SYSTEM...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY 
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...AND MOST OF 
THE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...ONLY SLOW 
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL 
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN AFTER A DAY OR SO 
AND...SINCE THE WATER WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...THE SYSTEM WILL 
THEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN EDGING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO...SO NO 
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE DEEMED NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER... 
THE DEPRESSION MAY GENERATE HEAVY RAINS IN COASTAL REGIONS THAT 
COULD BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 15.2N 100.8W    25 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 102.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 16.2N 104.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 106.6W    45 KTS
48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 109.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     13/1800Z 19.6N 113.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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