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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 45 TO 55 KT. THE WINDS ARE HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON SOME QUIKSCAT
VECTORS...ALTHOUGH THEY WERE RIGHT AT THE EDGE OF A SWATH AND I AM
NOT CERTAIN THE WINDS ARE REALLY THIS HIGH. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 22 TO 23C AND HENRIETTE IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE THE CONVECTION
REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR VERY LONG. A REMNANT LOW IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST TWO TO THREE DAYS...HOWEVER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. HENRIETTE IS MAKING A GENTLE TURN
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE GIL...WHICH IS ABOUT 400 NM TO ITS
SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM. OF NOTE ARE THE AVN AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH TURN HENRIETTE SOUTHWESTWARD MUCH MORE SHARPLY
THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 22.6N 128.6W 45 KTS
12HR VT 08/0600Z 22.6N 131.2W 40 KTS
24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.5N 134.7W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 09/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 09/1800Z 21.0N 141.0W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/1800Z 19.5N 145.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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