HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED GOOD BANDING FEATURES TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE TOPS WHICH 
WARMED THIS MORNING HAVE NOW COOLED AS A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS 
DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
REMAINED UNCHANGED FROM ALL AGENCIES AND RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT. 
A 1319Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 45 TO 50 KT 
WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT.
 
WITH BETTER CENTER FIXES IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...HENRIETTE IS MOVING 
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOW 295/16 KT.  
THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 
36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT THE TRACK WAS BENT BACK TO THE WEST...AS 
HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 
HURRICANE GIL.

SINCE HENRIETTE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...IT IS 
MOST LIKELY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN
12 TO 24 HOURS.  AS HENRIETTE CONTINUES INTO COLDER WATERS...STEADY 
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. 

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON 
RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 20.0N 122.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 21.1N 124.6W    50 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 22.3N 128.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 23.0N 131.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N 134.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N 139.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN