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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2001
 
HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.  
SATELITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 
KT FROM AFWA.  SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINITY IN THE EXACT CENTER 
LOCATION AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE WARMED 
SLIGHTLY...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 285/15.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES TO
FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HENRIETTE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER BOTH THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE KEEPING HENRIETTE AND GIL AS SEPARATE ENTITIES.  
SINCE THESE MODELS MAY NOT BE FULLY REPRESENTING THE INFLUENCE OF 
GILS CIRCULATION ON HENRIETTE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO A BIT 
FASTER THAN THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  AFTER
THAT...HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS...THEREFORE
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING HENRIETTE QUICKLY OVER COLDER WATERS... 
AND WEAKENING WOULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 19.1N 120.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 20.1N 123.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.1N 125.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 22.8N 130.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 24.5N 136.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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