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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM STRUCTURE IS
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL...AND MORE LIKE THAT OF A TYPICAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TIGHTENED AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH
IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  THERE ARE ALSO
SOME BANDING FEATURES NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEARING SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...DECREASING SSTS SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN HENRIETTE.

MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/14. THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE GIL SITUATED ABOUT
550 N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL 
MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE HENRIETTE VERY WELL...AND SHOWS A SPURIOUS 
VORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN IT AND GIL.  THIS RESULTS IN HENRIETTE 
TURNING RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROTATES AROUND 
BOTH GIL AND THE SPURIOUS VORTEX.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT 
GIL WILL...IN REALITY...DOMINATE THE STEERING SINCE HENRIETTE 
APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGER CIRCULATION.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST ONLY BENDS THE STORMS HEADING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/AGUIRRE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 17.8N 117.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.3N 120.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N 122.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N 125.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.5N 128.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N 133.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
  
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