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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
AND ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION
IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. A
QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE PROBABLY NOT HIGHER
THAN 25 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT 310/11. THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD TO
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHWEST...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS MUCH FASTER
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS RAPID TRANSLATION APPEARS TO RESULT
PARTLY FROM AN INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...ABOUT
750 NM TO ITS WEST. THERE IS AN APPARENTLY SOLID MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND SO THE GFDL SOLUTION IS HARD TO
ACCEPT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS
BUT IS CLOSER TO THE AVN.
WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. WITH THE CYCLONE TO WEST ON A MORE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT TRACK...ALMOST ANY INTERACTION WITH BIG BROTHER WOULD
HINDER DEVELOPMENT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 17.3N 108.9W 25 KTS
12HR VT 05/0000Z 18.2N 110.3W 25 KTS
24HR VT 05/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 30 KTS
36HR VT 06/0000Z 19.7N 113.8W 35 KTS
48HR VT 06/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W 40 KTS
72HR VT 07/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W 45 KTS
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