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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
AN SSM/I PASS AT 0227Z INDICATES THAT GIL MAY NOT HAVE BEEN QUITE
AS WELL ORGANIZED AS PREVIOUS THOUGHT...AS IT SHOWED A LIKELY MID
LEVEL CENTER ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE WEST OF THE LIKELY LOW LEVEL
CENTER. THE BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS BROKEN DOWN...ALTHOUGH NEW
CONVECTIONS IS FIRING NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT...AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
ALLOWING FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS...GIL
APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IS
680 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND MOVING 280/13. THIS MOTION AND
DECREASING SEPARATION INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT THE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL INTERACT. THE LIKELY EFFECT ON GIL WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW
MOTION...POSSIBLY TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. NHC HURRICANE
GUIDANCE DOES NOT YET REFLECT SUCH AN INTERACTION AND FORECASTS
GIL TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. FOR NOW...THE TRACK
FORECAST WILL CHANGE TO HOLDING GIL STATIONARY FOR 24 HR AND THEN
BEGINNING A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...SHOULD INTERACTION
OCCUR...THE TRACK MAY CHANGE TO AN EASTWARD OR VERY ERRATIC
MOTION.
GIL SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...BUT
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR ELSEWHERE. SOME SHEARING
OR IMPEDEDING OF OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
T.D. NINE-E APPROACHES...SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE SLOWER
THAN EARLIER FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INTERACTION WITH
T.D. NINE-E MAY DISRUPT PART OF THE CIRCULATION OF GIL...IN WHICH
CASE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLOW STRENGTHENING COULD BE OUT TO
LUNCH.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 15.4N 124.7W 55 KTS
12HR VT 05/1800Z 15.4N 124.7W 55 KTS
24HR VT 06/0600Z 15.4N 124.7W 60 KTS
36HR VT 06/1800Z 15.4N 125.4W 65 KTS
48HR VT 07/0600Z 15.5N 126.3W 70 KTS
72HR VT 08/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W 75 KTS
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