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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...IT 
APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...WHICH 
IS SHOWING GOOD BANDING FEATURES.  WITH THIS BANDING...THE 
DEPRESSION MAY IN FACT BE A TROPICAL STORM.  THE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 
T2.0 FROM TAFB...2.5 FROM SAB...AND 1.5 FROM AFWA...NOT CONCLUSIVE 
BY ANY MEANS...BUT THESE MAY BE A LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE.  GIVEN 
THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE CENTER POSITION...WE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE 
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION FOR NOW.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BASICALLY FAVORABLE 
AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/5.  THE DEPRESSION IS 
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT A SIGNIFICANT BREAK LIES 
AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN AND GFDL 
MODELS. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 15.6N 123.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 15.8N 124.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N 125.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 16.3N 126.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 17.0N 130.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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