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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...WHICH
IS SHOWING GOOD BANDING FEATURES. WITH THIS BANDING...THE
DEPRESSION MAY IN FACT BE A TROPICAL STORM. THE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
T2.0 FROM TAFB...2.5 FROM SAB...AND 1.5 FROM AFWA...NOT CONCLUSIVE
BY ANY MEANS...BUT THESE MAY BE A LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE CENTER POSITION...WE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION FOR NOW. THE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BASICALLY FAVORABLE
AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/5. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT A SIGNIFICANT BREAK LIES
AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN AND GFDL
MODELS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 15.6N 123.4W 30 KTS
12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.8N 124.1W 35 KTS
24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.0N 125.4W 40 KTS
36HR VT 06/0000Z 16.3N 126.7W 45 KTS
48HR VT 06/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 07/1200Z 17.0N 130.5W 65 KTS
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