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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001

...CORRECTED AWIPS HEADER TO MIATCDEP3...
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS 
NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS 
BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 
25 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7.  HOWEVER...THERE IS 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION RELATIVE TO 
THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE 
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO SOME WEAK EASTERLY 
SHEAR.  T.D. EIGHT-E SHOULD TRACK IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR 
WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OWING TO THE STRONG  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE 
MODEL GUDIANCE AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN CLIPER AND THE BAM MODELS.

AS A RESULT OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE...ONLY SLOW 
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE 
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED THROUGH 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 15.7N 122.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 15.9N 123.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N 125.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 16.6N 127.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.9N 128.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.6N 131.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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