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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/04.  FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A
WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES AT 500 MB...ONE TO THE
EAST AND THE OTHER TO THE WEST.  BOTH THE GFDL AND NOGAPS SHIFT THE
TRACK TO THE RIGHT WHILE THE AVN AND UKMET DO NOT GIVE A FORECAST
TRACK AT 12Z.  THIS IS APPARENTLY A RESULT OF STEERING FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT OTHERWISE
THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.
 
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
35 TO 55 KNOTS SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS.  
WITH A FORECAST TRACK OVER COLD WATER AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL 
SHEAR FORECAST BY THE AVIATION MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR
WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 24.4N 119.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 24.7N 119.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.2N 120.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     02/0600Z 25.6N 120.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     02/1800Z 26.0N 121.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATING
 
 
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