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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/04.  FLOSSIE CONTINUES IN A WEAK STEERING
PATTERN...EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EAST-WEST 500 MB RIDGE.  THE GFDL...
UKMET...NOGAPS AND AVIATION MODEL ALL SHOW A CONTINUED SLOW MOSTLY
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IN CONTRAST...THE BAM MODELS AND LBAR SHOW AN
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO
CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED CONTINUED WEAKENING.
 
THERE IS STILL SOME NOT-VERY-DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FLOSSIE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45-65 KNOTS AND THE 
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS.  INCREASINGLY COLDER 
WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE THE BASIS FOR A FORECAST OF 
CONTINUED WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR SOONER.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 24.0N 119.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 24.4N 119.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 24.8N 120.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     02/0000Z 25.1N 120.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     02/1200Z 25.3N 121.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATING
  
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