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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2001

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE...AND
THE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED SOUTH OF WHAT CONVECTION IS LEFT.
THIS SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT...55 KT...AND 55 KT FROM SAB...TAFB...
AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55
KT...AND GIVEN THE COLD WATER AND LACK OF CONVECTION THAT MIGHT BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS.

FLOSSIE SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN AND MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT 
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 330/4.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN IS
FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND DISSIPATION.  ONE INTERESTING NOTE IN THE
GUIDANCE IS THAT THE BAMS...A MODEL DESIGNED FOR THIS TYPE OF
SITUATION...FORECASTS A NORTHWESTERLY MOTION FOR 72 HR.

FLOSSIE IS NOW OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER EVEN COOLER WATER.  CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT FLOSSIE MAY DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF
THE REMAINING CONVECTION DISAPPEARS COMPLETELY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 23.7N 118.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 24.2N 119.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 24.6N 119.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 24.9N 120.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     02/0600Z 25.0N 121.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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